Latur was considered to be a stronghold of Congress due to it’s political history associated with former senior politicians from the district. Former CM Late. Shri Vilasrao Deshmukh and also Former Home Minister Shri. Shivraj Patil Chakurkar and former CM Late Shri. Shivajirao Patil Nilangekar. All of them belonged to the Congress party now called the Indian National Congress.
However, things started changing after 2014, when the Modi wave swept across India. The stronghold went into the hands of the BJP with local MP Sunil Gaikwad defeated Dattatray Gunderao Bansode of congress with a margin of 250000+ votes.
In 2019, again the BJP won. Shri. Sudhakar Tukaram Shrangare defeated Shri. Machindra Kamant with a margin of 280000+ votes. What took people by surprise was the margin of votes in this election. There were allegation in the media that the Deshmukh family didn’t give their 100% for the cause.
In 2024, the story is entirely different. This time around, the Deshmukh’s have adopted a clever strategy of fielding a Lingayat candidate Shri. Dr. Shivajirao Kalge who doesn’t have a political history of his own but is a successful eye specialist from Latur city. The strategy is to woo Lingayat votes in favor of the Congress candidate. The BJP on the other hand has fielded the same candidate who won in 2019, Shri. Sudhakar Tukaram Shrangare. It seems like Shri. Amit Vilasrao Deshmukh is following in his father’s footsteps in term of election winning strategy by using the caste equation in his favor. However, some theory concepts will not work in practice as time goes by. The time tested formula of “MaMuLi” in the 90’s which denoted Mahar, Muslim and Lingayats in the region will surely give more votes to the congress this time around. But will it be enough to win? The chances are it will! And the margin can be more than 50000 votes. Only time will tell the true story and let’s wait for the 4th June for the results. However, if congress falls short it will mainly because of less division of votes in the SC/ST community which has votes for the BJP in the last election. The more the division, the more the chances of a congress win in 2024 which is what it looks like.
The issues which have worked in the congress’s favor in this election is “farmer unhappy about the soyabean price”, “high pitch election campaign by the Deshmukh family”, “Priyanka’s campaigning”, “fear about changes in the constitution”, “Groud level door to door campaigning”, “high unemployment rates and high migration to bigger cities”, “high cost of living and inflation”.
What worked for the BJP is “Campaigning by PM Narendra Modi in Latur”, “assurance of not touching the constitution”, Campaigning by local MLA’s including Sambhaji Patil Nilangekar and young leaders like Ajeet Patil Kavhekar and Prerna Honrao, “central issues like: a stable government, clarity of who would lead the country, economic growth etc”, “water issue pending with state government” for long (read as: Amit Vilasrao Deshmukh). Having said this, the BJP is all dependent on the Modi magic and with a sizeable population of “Modi fans” in Latur, it won’t be a surprise if BJP wins this seat third time too.
Unlike last year, this time the Deshmukh’s have given in their 100% minus (Riteish Deshmukh) who visited to caste his vote in Bhabhalgaon. However, in the Vidhan Sabha polls later this year in Maharashtra one can expect Riteish Deshmukh to campaign for his brothers.
Overall, the elections were free and fair in Latur and that’s what which matters and it is irrelevant about who wins the seat. If the congress can’t win a Lok Sabha seat this time around, it would be very hard to win in future as this time the anti-incumbency factor is at all time high in Maharashtra. However, if it wins, all credit should go to the Deshmukh family.
What’s your opinion on this election? Do comment in the section below with your analysis.
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